India's disinflation process to be slow, protracted, says cenbank chief

GS-III | Indian Economy

·     According to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das, the disinflation process in India will be slow and protracted, with the 4% inflation target likely to be met only over the medium term. “While our inflation projection for the current financial year 2023-24 is lower, at 5.1%, it would still be well above the target,” he added.

·     The country's monetary policy committee (MPC), headed by the RBI chief, is tasked with bringing down inflation to 4% over the medium term and holding it between 2% and 6% over the long term.

·     Latest data showed India's annual retail inflation cooled to 4.25% in May from 4.7% in April, but analysts expect prices to remain sticky in the coming months.

·     Das said regulators cannot be oblivious to growth concerns given the outsized addition to the workforce every year because of the 'demographic dividend' in the world's most populous country.

·      RBI, for the second consecutive monetary policy, left the repo unchanged at 6.5 per cent.The central bank has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points (bps) between May 2022 and February 2023 to check inflation.

What is Disinflation?

 

·         Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation and is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.

·         Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.

·         Disinflation is not considered problematic because prices do not actually drop, and disinflation does not usually signal the onset of a slowing economy. Deflation is represented as a negative growth rate, such as -1%, while disinflation is shown as a change in the inflation rate, say, from 3% one year to 2% the next. Disinflation is considered the opposite of reflation, which occurs when a government stimulates an economy by increasing the money supply.

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