Global Infrastructure Risk Model and Resilience Index (GIRI)

1.       Initiative of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI)

2.      The first ever fully probabilistic risk assessment index providing credible & comparable probabilistic risk metrics about global infrastructure projects across the world.

3.      It informs about future risks from 6 kinds of hazards - tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, landslides, earthquakes and Tsunami.

4.      This will inform planning, decision making and investment in disaster and climate resilient infrastructure by private planning, countries and states by analysing aspects of risk profiling.

5.      The GIRI is a global public good with free access to the data platform by all the users along with free usage access to all risk metrics produced.

Global Boiling and the spectre of Food & Water crisis

Key highlights of various reports:

1.     The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has recorded the month of July as the hottest ever in the last 1,20,000 years indicated by the highest global mean surface temperature.
Notable climate change vagaries in the month of July:

                      i.      Heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere causing wild fires in Greece.

                     ii.      Floods inundating parts of Mumbai, Delhi, Gujarat and Assam due to torrential monsoonal downpour and swollen rivers.

2.      The National Snow and Ice Data centre:

                      i.        The ice melt has increased sharply comparing the 1981 and 2001 average.

                     ii.      The Antarctic Sea ice has shrunk by 1.2 million Sq.km.

3.      IPCC Assessment Report 2023

                      i.      Anthropogenic activities have unequivocally caused global warming through emissions of Greenhouse gases (GHGs), leading to temperature increase of 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020.

                     ii.      The global GHGs emissions in 2030 implied by the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) is likely to exceed 1.5°C during the 21^st century, thus making it harder to limit below 2°C.

What are the potential impacts?

1.     Freshwater sources become vulnerable especially population dependent on glacial ice and snow melt water in India, China and Pakistan.

2.      Changes in Climate-impact drivers:

        a.      More frequent Heatwaves and droughts.

        b.      Extreme Sea level events will rise due to Sea level rise.

        c.       Intensification of Tropical cyclones and Extratropical storms.

3.      Mass mortality events of local species in terrestrial, freshwater, cryosphere, coastal and open ocean ecosystems have been recorded due to high magnitude of heat extremes.

4.      Impact on Hydrology & Rising temperatures shall cause shifting of precipitation patterns and extreme events negatively affecting the growth rate of yields and production, impacting food security especially in low- and mid-latitude regions.

5.      Half of the world’s population experience water-scarcity at least for a part of the year due to climate change.

6.      Extreme heat events have led to increased human mortality and morbidity with increased occurrence of climate related food-borne and water-borne diseases on the rise.

7.      Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to climate change will be disproportionately affected especially the Small Island States of the Caribbean and the South Pacific.

8.     Climate extremes are driving displacement of communities in Africa, Asia, North America, Central and South America.

What has to be done?

1.       Adoption of Renewable energy swiftly with green sources of its production.

        a.      China is leading in the Electric Vehicles race, yet it depends on coal-powered plants for half of its electricity needs.

       b.      Renewable energy generates less than 30% of total electricity produced in the world.

2.      Adequate global financial flows, especially to the developing countries for achieving climate adaptation goals in reality.

3.      Addressing key barriers to climate Adaptation goals.

The ‘emission and adaptation gaps will lead to Climate change becoming uncontrollable by actions of humankind. Hence, an approach to minimise existing fossil fuel infrastructure utilisation and realisation of carbon budget giving effect to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) shall be an effective mitigation strategy to tackle the effects pf climate change.